Prediction Markets · Governance · Open Source

Predict expert judgment.
Profit from accuracy.

98 Ethereum repos. $350k in funding. Build a model that predicts human jury scores before they go public — and earn from every correct call.

$350k Total Funding Pool
98 Repos Evaluated
$20k Pond ML Contest Prizes

What You're Predicting

Human experts compare repos pairwise and score them. Your job: predict those accepted scores before they go public.

A meta jury of three experts — Andrew Coathup, Conor Svenson, and Devansh Mehta — reviews every evaluator submission and accepts only those with strong, well-reasoned rationale. Your model needs to mirror the thinking of accepted evaluators, not just average opinion.

Markets resolve when human evaluators randomly sample specific pairwise comparisons from the full possible set. If your predictions moved market prices closer to human judgment, you profit. If they moved prices away, you lose. Random sampling keeps the system honest: you cannot game specific matchups because you never know which comparisons will be selected.

How the Markets Work

Three interconnected markets determine the final allocation of funds across all 98 repos.

Multiscalar

Seed Nodes

Divides the full $350k between all 98 repos. Weights must sum to 1.

Scalar

Originality

Determines how much a repo keeps vs. passes to its dependencies. Trade UP or DOWN based on your assessment.

Multiscalar

Child Nodes

Divides funds flowing from a seed node among its dependencies. Weights must sum to 1.

Worked Example
go-ethereum has a 0.1 weight in seed nodes → receives $35,000
Originality score of 0.8 → keeps $28,000, passes $7,000 to dependencies
Child node weights then split that $7,000 among downstream dependencies

Incentive Structure

Your trading credits are structured so your downside is zero from your own pocket.

20%

Pure Grant

Keep regardless of outcome. Win or lose, this portion is yours.

80%

Forgivable Loan

If you lose, return only what remains. If you profit, keep all profits and return the original 80%.

Round 1 Bonus Prizes

1st Place2,000 sUSDS
2nd Place1,500 sUSDS
3rd Place1,000 sUSDS
4th – 10th500 sUSDS each
Beat baseline (9999)200 sUSDS
Made profit in R11,500 sUSDS
Made loss in R1500 sUSDS

1 sUSDS ≈ $1.07 · Additional trading subsidies provided by Seer for all participants

Pond ML Contest

A parallel ML competition running alongside the Seer markets — one submission, two revenue streams.

Submit once, earn twice

Submit your model to the Pond ML contest for competition prizes while simultaneously trading those predictions on Seer markets for direct profit.

$20,000 in prizes

Gaming Attempts Work in Your Favor

Unlike quadratic funding, manipulation here creates profit opportunities for you.

If a repo attempts to inflate its own market price by buying UP tokens beyond what evaluators would reasonably assess, that overpricing becomes your opportunity.

Suppose a seed node buys UP to 100% originality. Human evaluators later judge it at 80%. DOWN tokens redeem at 20¢. Anyone who bought DOWN between 0–20¢ profits. The repo attempting to game the system loses money on UP tokens that only redeem at 80¢.

In quadratic funding, sybil attacks carry only reputational cost. In deep funding, they become your profit margin.

How to Participate

The round closes after 2 months. Evaluations go public, profits and losses are settled, and allocations finalize.

Review the repos

Study the 98 Ethereum repositories being evaluated at deep.seer.pm. Understand the ecosystem, dependencies, and relative contributions.

Build your model

Predict human jury scores across all three market types: seed node weights, originality scores, and child node weights.

Trade your predictions

Place your predictions as trades on Seer markets. You receive trading credits structured as a 20% grant + 80% forgivable loan.

Submit to Pond contest

Enter your model in the Pond ML contest (timeline TBA) for an additional $20,000 prize pool on top of your Seer market earnings.

Collect your earnings

When the round closes, evaluations go public. Accurate predictions yield profit. All participants receive leaderboard prizes and trading subsidies from Seer.

The Human Jury

The meta jury reviews every evaluator submission and accepts only those with strong, well-reasoned rationale.

AC
Andrew Coathup
Meta Juror
CS
Conor Svenson
Meta Juror
DM
Devansh Mehta
Meta Juror

Anyone with an ENS name can become an evaluator at deepfundingjury.com. Each submission requires 10 pairwise comparisons between seed nodes and 3 originality judgments — taking 2–20 minutes per question. Quality matters more than quantity.